Polling average · loading
Counting the polls…
The parties — and whose side they're on
Polling average and projected seats for every party in Parliament's race. Coalition lines aren't fixed until the votes are counted — drag the wildcards yourself. The Opportunities Party says it could work with either major party, so it starts unaligned.
Simulations
The chances on election day
Polls will move and polls can be wrong. Ten thousand simulated elections, each drawing a plausible 7 November result around the adjusted polling average — wider the further out we are — and running the full seat maths. Your alignment and electorate settings above feed straight in.
Party vote since the 2023 election
Every published poll (dots) with a recency-weighted average (lines). Parties need 5% of the party vote — or an electorate seat — to enter Parliament.
The polls themselves
Party-vote results from every major New Zealand pollster, newest first. Figures are percentages.
Preferred prime minister
From the most recent poll asking the question.
How the seats are worked out
The average
Each pollster's house effect — its systematic lean per party against the consensus of all pollsters over the past 18 months — is estimated and subtracted first. Adjusted polls are then combined with an exponential recency weight (half-life 30 days) scaled by sample size. Newer, larger polls count for more; pollsters that skip a party are left out of that party's average. The table below always shows the published numbers.
The seats
New Zealand uses MMP: the 120 seats are shared out by the Sainte-Laguë formula among parties that clear 5% of the party vote or win an electorate. A party that wins more electorates than its party vote would entitle it to keeps the extras, and Parliament grows — the overhang. The majority line moves with it.
The simulations
The forecast draws 10,000 possible election-day results around the adjusted average. Each party's error grows with its size and with the time left until 7 November — history says polls this far out miss by a few points. Electorate seats are sampled too: an assumption switched on holds in 85% of simulations, one switched off still happens in 12%. Every draw runs through the same Sainte-Laguë maths, and the outcomes are counted.
Electorate assumptions
Sub-5% parties live or die on electorate seats, so the switches under the seat map matter. Defaults reflect the seats each party holds now: Te Pāti Māori's six Māori electorates and ACT's Epsom. Give TOP Ilam — or NZ First an electorate — and the balance can flip.