← Prism · answered 28 October 2026
When is the next Taxpayers' Union–Curia election poll out?
What the record says
The Taxpayers' Union–Curia poll is a monthly survey commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers' Union and conducted by Curia Market Research (David Farrar). It is typically fielded in the first days of the month and published within the following week. The October 2026 edition was fielded 1–5 October and released on 8–11 October: National 28.5% (−0.5), Labour 28.2% (+2.3), Greens 13.3%, NZ First 12%, ACT 9.2%, TOP 4.8%, Te Pāti Māori 1.4% — a random poll of 1,000 adults by phone and online, maximum margin of error ±3.1%.
No release date for a November edition or a final pre-election poll has been announced. If the monthly cadence holds, the next edition would normally appear in the first or second week of November — around or after election day (7 November). For comparison, in 2023 the series' last pre-election poll was its regular early-October edition (1–4 October, before the 14 October vote). Curia resigned its membership of the Research Association of New Zealand in 2024 following complaints.
From the left
Figures on the left — including Labour and Green MPs who have criticised the Taxpayers' Union over the years — argue voters should read this poll with its provenance in plain view: it is commissioned by a lobby group campaigning for lower taxes and smaller government, and conducted by Curia, whose principal David Farrar is a long-time National Party pollster and Kiwiblog founder. They point out Curia left the industry body RANZ in 2024 after complaints, so it no longer sits under that code's oversight — a transparency and democratic-integrity concern in an election's final fortnight. On the numbers themselves, the left notes even this poll showed Labour up 2.3 points to 28.2%, effectively level with National, consistent with Freshwater putting Labour ahead — evidence, they argue, that the campaign's momentum on cost of living, health and housing is with the opposition bloc, whoever pays for the polling.
From the right
The Taxpayers' Union and its allies on the right argue the poll's funder is irrelevant to its quality: it is New Zealand's most frequent public political poll, with published methodology — 1,000 respondents, phone and online, weighted to the adult population, ±3.1% margin of error — and its October results landed within about a point of 1News–Verian, Anacta and Freshwater on the major parties, which they say is the real test of reliability. Jordan Williams' Taxpayers' Union says the full reports go to members but headline results are released publicly every month, giving voters more information, not less — a value of free speech and scrutiny. The right also highlights what the series shows: NZ First surging to 12%, the coalition bloc ahead, TOP under the 5% threshold at 4.8%, and cost of living consistently the top issue — vindicating, they argue, a campaign centred on fiscal discipline and tax relief.
The disagreement turns on whether the credibility of political information rests on the independence of who commissions it, or on the transparency and demonstrated accuracy of its methods — institutional trust versus more speech and a track record.
Sources: Taxpayers' Union – October 2026 poll · Curia Market Research – October 2026 poll · RNZ – NZ First surge extends coalition lead · NZ Herald – Support rises for NZ First and Labour · Wikipedia – Opinion polling for the 2026 NZ general election · Wikipedia – Opinion polling for the 2023 NZ general election · Taxpayers' Union newsletter (8 Oct 2026) · RNZ – Labour and National both under 30 percent
Prism is an AI research pass over published reporting and this site's live forecast. The two cases are each side's best argument, not the site's view — and the order (left first) is layout, not a ranking. Check the sources before leaning on anything.